TRENDS IN PANCREATIC CANCER INCIDENCE, PREVALENCE, AND MORTALITY IN THE UNITED STATES AND HIGH SDI COUNTRIES (1991–2021) AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS: A FORECASTING POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS ameer.hamzasohail@gmail.com

PW01-02

TRENDS IN PANCREATIC CANCER INCIDENCE, PREVALENCE, AND MORTALITY IN THE UNITED STATES AND HIGH SDI COUNTRIES (1991–2021) AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS: A FORECASTING POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS

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Asad Ullah drasadkhankakar@gmail.com Texas Tech University Lubbock United States

Amir Humza Sohail ameer.hamzasohail@gmail.com University of New Mexico Albuquerque United States *

United States

Oral or Poster

Pancreatic cancer incidence is rising, particularly in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) countries, where it is projected to become the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality. We investigated epidemiological trends in pancreatic cancer in the U.S. and high SDI countries (1991-2021).

This retrospective, population-based observational study analyzed pancreatic cancer trends using the Global Burden of Disease database. Primary outcome measures included age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), and mortality (ASMR) rates, stratified by sex and region. Joinpoint regression analysis estimated annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals to identify significant trends. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were used to forecast rates (2022-2041)

From 1991 to 2021, pancreatic cancer ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR rose in both the U.S. and high-SDI countries, with a sharp rise after 2001 and a plateau after 2016. ASIR peaked at 10.46 (U.S., 2016) and 10.24 (high SDI, 2018), with similar trends in ASPR and ASMR. APC analysis revealed a significant rise (p<0.001) in most periods, though rates recently declined in high-SDI regions. Males consistently had higher rates compared to females. Projections to 2041 suggest a further rise, with ASMR projected at 9.856 and 9.813, respectively, leading to a projected 271,310 deaths in high SDI countries and 72,304 deaths in the US(Figure 1).

Pancreatic cancer incidence, prevalence and morality have increased in the past two decades, with recent stabilization reflecting improved detection and treatment. A rise is projected to continue through 2041. Efforts are imperative to refine early diagnostics, identify risk factors, and develop interventions to reduce mortality.